FCL vs ASM
Lorient (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
FCL win 40.6% fair 2.46
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
ASM win 36.0% fair 2.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.9% / 22.9% / 37.2%.
Expected Goals
FCL
1.69
—
1.63
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 ASM | 10.0% | |
| FCL 2-1 ASM | 8.4% | |
| FCL 1-2 ASM | 8.1% | |
| FCL 2-2 ASM | 6.9% | |
| FCL 1-0 ASM | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).