FCL vs OGC
Lorient (home) vs Nice · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 50.8% fair 1.97
Draw 24.9% fair 4.01
OGC win 24.2% fair 4.12
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.6% / 24.8% / 23.6%.
Expected Goals
FCL
1.62
—
1.01
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 OGC | 11.8% | |
| FCL 1-0 OGC | 11.7% | |
| FCL 2-1 OGC | 9.6% | |
| FCL 2-0 OGC | 9.5% | |
| FCL 0-1 OGC | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).