FCL vs PFC
Lorient (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
FCL win 43.9% fair 2.28
Draw 24.7% fair 4.06
PFC win 31.4% fair 3.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.7% / 24.4% / 31.8%.
Expected Goals
FCL
1.59
—
1.33
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 PFC | 11.4% | |
| FCL 2-1 PFC | 9.1% | |
| FCL 1-0 PFC | 8.6% | |
| FCL 1-2 PFC | 7.6% | |
| FCL 0-1 PFC | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).