FCL vs PSG
Lorient (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 24.2% fair 4.13
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
PSG win 52.4% fair 1.91
Expected Goals
FCL
1.05
—
1.80
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 PSG | 10.9% | |
| FCL 0-1 PSG | 10.4% | |
| FCL 1-2 PSG | 9.8% | |
| FCL 0-2 PSG | 9.3% | |
| FCL 1-0 PSG | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).