FCL vs REN
Lorient (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 38.4% fair 2.61
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
REN win 37.8% fair 2.64
Expected Goals
FCL
1.57
—
1.60
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.6% | fair 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 REN | 10.5% | |
| FCL 1-2 REN | 8.4% | |
| FCL 2-1 REN | 8.3% | |
| FCL 0-1 REN | 6.7% | |
| FCL 2-2 REN | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).