FCL vs REN
Lorient (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
FCL win 39.3% fair 2.55
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
REN win 37.2% fair 2.69
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.4% / 23.1% / 38.5%.
Expected Goals
FCL
1.64
—
1.65
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.2% | fair 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 REN | 10.1% | |
| FCL 1-2 REN | 8.3% | |
| FCL 2-1 REN | 8.3% | |
| FCL 2-2 REN | 6.8% | |
| FCL 0-1 REN | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).