FCL vs STR
Lorient (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCL win 43.3% fair 2.31
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
STR win 32.3% fair 3.10
Expected Goals
FCL
1.61
—
1.37
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.8% | fair 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 STR | 11.2% | |
| FCL 2-1 STR | 9.0% | |
| FCL 1-0 STR | 8.2% | |
| FCL 1-2 STR | 7.7% | |
| FCL 0-1 STR | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).