FCL vs TFC
Lorient (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
FCL win 43.7% fair 2.29
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
TFC win 31.6% fair 3.16
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.5% / 24.4% / 32.1%.
Expected Goals
FCL
1.59
—
1.33
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 TFC | 11.4% | |
| FCL 2-1 TFC | 9.1% | |
| FCL 1-0 TFC | 8.6% | |
| FCL 1-2 TFC | 7.6% | |
| FCL 0-1 TFC | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).