FCL vs EST
Lorient (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 66% · pregame locked (08-29 · FT 1-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FCL win 53.9% fair 1.86
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
EST win 22.9% fair 4.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.1% / 22.5% / 21.4%.
Expected Goals
FCL
1.87
—
1.07
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCL 1-1 EST | 10.6% | |
| FCL 1-0 EST | 9.9% | |
| FCL 2-1 EST | 9.9% | |
| FCL 2-0 EST | 9.3% | |
| FCL 3-1 EST | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCL goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).