OL vs SCO
Lyon (home) vs Angers · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 60.7% fair 1.65
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
SCO win 17.2% fair 5.81
Expected Goals
OL
1.91
—
0.83
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-0 SCO | 12.3% | |
| OL 2-0 SCO | 11.7% | |
| OL 1-1 SCO | 10.3% | |
| OL 2-1 SCO | 9.8% | |
| OL 3-0 SCO | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).