OL vs SCO
Lyon (home) vs Angers · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
OL win 58.7% fair 1.70
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
SCO win 18.5% fair 5.39
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.9% / 22.2% / 16.9%.
Expected Goals
OL
1.85
—
0.86
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-0 SCO | 12.3% | |
| OL 2-0 SCO | 11.4% | |
| OL 1-1 SCO | 10.6% | |
| OL 2-1 SCO | 9.8% | |
| OL 3-0 SCO | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).