OL vs AJA
Lyon (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
OL win 56.8% fair 1.76
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
AJA win 20.1% fair 4.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.7% / 22.6% / 18.7%.
Expected Goals
OL
1.83
—
0.93
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-0 AJA | 11.6% | |
| OL 1-1 AJA | 10.8% | |
| OL 2-0 AJA | 10.6% | |
| OL 2-1 AJA | 9.9% | |
| OL 3-0 AJA | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).