OL vs SB29
Lyon (home) vs Brest · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 57.3% fair 1.75
Draw 21.8% fair 4.58
SB29 win 20.9% fair 4.79
Expected Goals
OL
2.01
—
1.08
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.4% | fair 2.48 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 2-1 SB29 | 9.9% | |
| OL 1-1 SB29 | 9.9% | |
| OL 2-0 SB29 | 9.2% | |
| OL 1-0 SB29 | 9.2% | |
| OL 3-1 SB29 | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).