OL vs HAC
Lyon (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
OL win 55.1% fair 1.81
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
HAC win 20.5% fair 4.88
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.7% / 24.1% / 19.2%.
Expected Goals
OL
1.68
—
0.86
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | fair 2.13 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-0 HAC | 13.2% | |
| OL 1-1 HAC | 11.4% | |
| OL 2-0 HAC | 11.1% | |
| OL 2-1 HAC | 9.6% | |
| OL 0-0 HAC | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).