OL vs LMFC
Lyon (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 64.8% fair 1.54
Draw 19.5% fair 5.12
LMFC win 15.7% fair 6.38
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.4% / 18.3% / 13.2%.
Expected Goals
OL
2.26
—
0.88
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.4% | fair 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 2-0 LMFC | 11.1% | |
| OL 1-0 LMFC | 9.8% | |
| OL 2-1 LMFC | 9.7% | |
| OL 1-1 LMFC | 8.6% | |
| OL 3-0 LMFC | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).