OL vs RCL
Lyon (home) vs Lens · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 40.9% fair 2.44
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
RCL win 34.4% fair 2.91
Expected Goals
OL
1.53
—
1.40
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-1 RCL | 11.4% | |
| OL 2-1 RCL | 8.7% | |
| OL 1-0 RCL | 8.2% | |
| OL 1-2 RCL | 8.0% | |
| OL 0-1 RCL | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).