OL vs LIL
Lyon (home) vs Lille · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 42.9% fair 2.33
Draw 26.5% fair 3.78
LIL win 30.7% fair 3.26
Expected Goals
OL
1.39
—
1.14
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-1 LIL | 12.6% | |
| OL 1-0 LIL | 11.0% | |
| OL 0-1 LIL | 9.0% | |
| OL 2-1 LIL | 8.8% | |
| OL 0-0 LIL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).