OL vs FCL
Lyon (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 52.0% fair 1.92
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
FCL win 23.4% fair 4.27
Expected Goals
OL
1.66
—
1.00
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-0 FCL | 11.7% | |
| OL 1-1 FCL | 11.6% | |
| OL 2-0 FCL | 9.7% | |
| OL 2-1 FCL | 9.6% | |
| OL 0-0 FCL | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).