OL vs OM
Lyon (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 45.1% fair 2.22
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
OM win 31.6% fair 3.17
Expected Goals
OL
1.77
—
1.46
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.4% | fair 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-1 OM | 10.2% | |
| OL 2-1 OM | 9.1% | |
| OL 1-2 OM | 7.5% | |
| OL 1-0 OM | 7.0% | |
| OL 2-2 OM | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).