OL vs OM
Lyon (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
OL win 42.2% fair 2.37
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
OM win 34.0% fair 2.94
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.8% / 23.5% / 34.8%.
Expected Goals
OL
1.67
—
1.50
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.6% | fair 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-1 OM | 10.5% | |
| OL 2-1 OM | 8.8% | |
| OL 1-2 OM | 7.9% | |
| OL 1-0 OM | 7.0% | |
| OL 2-2 OM | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).