OL vs ASM
Lyon (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
OL win 49.8% fair 2.01
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
ASM win 27.5% fair 3.64
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.5% / 22.2% / 27.3%.
Expected Goals
OL
1.92
—
1.36
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.4% | fair 2.74 |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-1 ASM | 9.8% | |
| OL 2-1 ASM | 9.4% | |
| OL 1-0 ASM | 7.2% | |
| OL 2-0 ASM | 6.9% | |
| OL 1-2 ASM | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).