OL vs ASM
Lyon (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 47.4% fair 2.11
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
ASM win 28.5% fair 3.50
Expected Goals
OL
1.70
—
1.26
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-1 ASM | 11.1% | |
| OL 2-1 ASM | 9.4% | |
| OL 1-0 ASM | 8.8% | |
| OL 2-0 ASM | 7.5% | |
| OL 1-2 ASM | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).