OL vs OGC
Lyon (home) vs Nice · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
OL win 61.2% fair 1.63
Draw 21.0% fair 4.76
OGC win 17.8% fair 5.63
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.0% / 20.2% / 15.9%.
Expected Goals
OL
2.08
—
0.93
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 2-0 OGC | 10.7% | |
| OL 1-0 OGC | 10.2% | |
| OL 2-1 OGC | 9.9% | |
| OL 1-1 OGC | 9.5% | |
| OL 3-0 OGC | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).