OL vs PFC
Lyon (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 50.4% fair 1.98
Draw 24.1% fair 4.14
PFC win 25.5% fair 3.93
Expected Goals
OL
1.71
—
1.13
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-1 PFC | 11.3% | |
| OL 1-0 PFC | 10.0% | |
| OL 2-1 PFC | 9.7% | |
| OL 2-0 PFC | 8.6% | |
| OL 0-1 PFC | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).