OL vs PSG
Lyon (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 32.2% fair 3.10
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
PSG win 43.0% fair 2.33
Expected Goals
OL
1.28
—
1.58
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-1 PSG | 11.6% | |
| OL 1-2 PSG | 9.1% | |
| OL 0-1 PSG | 9.1% | |
| OL 2-1 PSG | 7.4% | |
| OL 1-0 PSG | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).