OL vs REN
Lyon (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-19 · FT 4-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
OL win 48.3% fair 2.07
Draw 22.4% fair 4.45
REN win 29.2% fair 3.42
Expected Goals
OL
1.94
—
1.47
REN
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): OL ×1.100 (matched 11), REN ×1.100 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.3% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.7% | fair 2.96 |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-1 REN | 9.4% | |
| OL 2-1 REN | 9.1% | |
| OL 1-2 REN | 6.9% | |
| OL 2-2 REN | 6.7% | |
| OL 1-0 REN | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).