OL vs STR
Lyon (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 53.8% fair 1.86
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
STR win 23.8% fair 4.19
Expected Goals
OL
1.95
—
1.20
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-1 STR | 10.0% | |
| OL 2-1 STR | 9.8% | |
| OL 1-0 STR | 8.3% | |
| OL 2-0 STR | 8.1% | |
| OL 3-1 STR | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).