OL vs TFC
Lyon (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 51.7% fair 1.93
Draw 23.9% fair 4.19
TFC win 24.4% fair 4.09
Expected Goals
OL
1.75
—
1.10
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 1-1 TFC | 11.2% | |
| OL 1-0 TFC | 10.2% | |
| OL 2-1 TFC | 9.7% | |
| OL 2-0 TFC | 8.9% | |
| OL 0-1 TFC | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).