OL vs EST
Lyon (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OL win 64.6% fair 1.55
Draw 20.1% fair 4.98
EST win 15.3% fair 6.55
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.1% / 19.1% / 12.9%.
Expected Goals
OL
2.14
—
0.81
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| OL 2-0 EST | 12.0% | |
| OL 1-0 EST | 11.3% | |
| OL 2-1 EST | 9.7% | |
| OL 1-1 EST | 9.1% | |
| OL 3-0 EST | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OL goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).