OM vs SCO
Marseille (home) vs Angers · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 63.8% fair 1.57
Draw 19.4% fair 5.16
SCO win 16.8% fair 5.95
Expected Goals
OM
2.30
—
1.02
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.7% | fair 2.80 |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-1 SCO | 9.8% | |
| OM 2-0 SCO | 9.6% | |
| OM 1-1 SCO | 8.5% | |
| OM 1-0 SCO | 8.4% | |
| OM 3-1 SCO | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).