OM vs AJA
Marseille (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 62.9% fair 1.59
Draw 19.3% fair 5.18
AJA win 17.8% fair 5.62
Expected Goals
OM
2.35
—
1.10
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.9% | fair 3.04 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-1 AJA | 9.6% | |
| OM 2-0 AJA | 8.7% | |
| OM 1-1 AJA | 8.2% | |
| OM 3-1 AJA | 7.6% | |
| OM 1-0 AJA | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).