OM vs SB29
Marseille (home) vs Brest · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 59.9% fair 1.67
Draw 19.5% fair 5.14
SB29 win 20.7% fair 4.84
Expected Goals
OM
2.42
—
1.32
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.1% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.9% | fair 3.58 |
| Both teams to score | 66.7% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-1 SB29 | 9.2% | |
| OM 1-1 SB29 | 7.6% | |
| OM 3-1 SB29 | 7.4% | |
| OM 2-0 SB29 | 7.0% | |
| OM 2-2 SB29 | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).