OM vs HAC
Marseille (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
OM win 58.8% fair 1.70
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
HAC win 19.2% fair 5.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.9% / 21.4% / 17.6%.
Expected Goals
OM
1.96
—
0.95
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.6% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 1-0 HAC | 10.7% | |
| OM 2-0 HAC | 10.5% | |
| OM 1-1 HAC | 10.2% | |
| OM 2-1 HAC | 9.9% | |
| OM 3-0 HAC | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).