OM vs HAC
Marseille (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 4-3 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.92
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
OM win 65.6% fair 1.53
Draw 19.5% fair 5.14
HAC win 15.0% fair 6.68
Expected Goals
OM
2.21
—
0.86
HAC
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): OM ×1.100 (matched 11), HAC ×0.925 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-0 HAC | 11.4% | |
| OM 1-0 HAC | 10.3% | |
| OM 2-1 HAC | 9.7% | |
| OM 1-1 HAC | 8.8% | |
| OM 3-0 HAC | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).