OM vs LMFC
Marseille (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
OM win 67.7% fair 1.48
Draw 17.4% fair 5.75
LMFC win 14.9% fair 6.72
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 73.5% / 15.2% / 11.3%.
Expected Goals
OM
2.70
—
0.99
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.1% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.9% | fair 3.47 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-0 LMFC | 9.2% | |
| OM 2-1 LMFC | 9.0% | |
| OM 3-0 LMFC | 8.2% | |
| OM 3-1 LMFC | 8.1% | |
| OM 1-0 LMFC | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).