OM vs LMFC
Marseille (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 67.8% fair 1.47
Draw 17.1% fair 5.83
LMFC win 15.0% fair 6.65
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 72.0% / 15.5% / 12.5%.
Expected Goals
OM
2.72
—
1.07
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.0% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.0% | fair 3.70 |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-1 LMFC | 8.9% | |
| OM 2-0 LMFC | 8.3% | |
| OM 3-1 LMFC | 8.1% | |
| OM 3-0 LMFC | 7.6% | |
| OM 1-1 LMFC | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).