OM vs RCL
Marseille (home) vs Lens · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 42.0% fair 2.38
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
RCL win 35.6% fair 2.81
Expected Goals
OM
1.84
—
1.71
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.8% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.2% | fair 3.21 |
| Both teams to score | 68.9% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 1-1 RCL | 9.0% | |
| OM 2-1 RCL | 8.3% | |
| OM 1-2 RCL | 7.7% | |
| OM 2-2 RCL | 7.1% | |
| OM 1-0 RCL | 5.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).