OM vs LIL
Marseille (home) vs Lille · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 44.4% fair 2.25
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
LIL win 31.7% fair 3.16
Expected Goals
OM
1.68
—
1.39
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.7% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 1-1 LIL | 10.8% | |
| OM 2-1 LIL | 9.1% | |
| OM 1-0 LIL | 7.8% | |
| OM 1-2 LIL | 7.5% | |
| OM 2-0 LIL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).