OM vs FCL
Marseille (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 54.3% fair 1.84
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
FCL win 23.6% fair 4.24
Expected Goals
OM
2.00
—
1.21
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.8% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 1-1 FCL | 9.8% | |
| OM 2-1 FCL | 9.8% | |
| OM 1-0 FCL | 8.1% | |
| OM 2-0 FCL | 8.0% | |
| OM 3-1 FCL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).