OM vs OL
Marseille (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 44.4% fair 2.25
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
OL win 32.2% fair 3.10
Expected Goals
OM
1.75
—
1.48
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.4% | fair 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 1-1 OL | 10.3% | |
| OM 2-1 OL | 9.0% | |
| OM 1-2 OL | 7.6% | |
| OM 1-0 OL | 6.9% | |
| OM 2-2 OL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).