OM vs ASM
Marseille (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 49.1% fair 2.04
Draw 21.8% fair 4.58
ASM win 29.1% fair 3.44
Expected Goals
OM
2.05
—
1.54
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.6% | fair 3.27 |
| Both teams to score | 68.4% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-1 ASM | 8.9% | |
| OM 1-1 ASM | 8.7% | |
| OM 2-2 ASM | 6.9% | |
| OM 1-2 ASM | 6.7% | |
| OM 3-1 ASM | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).