OM vs OGC
Marseille (home) vs Nice · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
OM win 65.6% fair 1.53
Draw 18.5% fair 5.41
OGC win 16.0% fair 6.27
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 69.0% / 17.2% / 13.7%.
Expected Goals
OM
2.46
—
1.02
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.5% | fair 3.08 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-1 OGC | 9.5% | |
| OM 2-0 OGC | 9.4% | |
| OM 3-1 OGC | 7.8% | |
| OM 1-1 OGC | 7.7% | |
| OM 3-0 OGC | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).