OM vs OGC
Marseille (home) vs Nice · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 63.7% fair 1.57
Draw 19.1% fair 5.24
OGC win 17.3% fair 5.80
Expected Goals
OM
2.38
—
1.08
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.9% | fair 3.04 |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-1 OGC | 9.6% | |
| OM 2-0 OGC | 8.9% | |
| OM 1-1 OGC | 8.1% | |
| OM 3-1 OGC | 7.6% | |
| OM 1-0 OGC | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).