OM vs PSG
Marseille (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
OM win 35.3% fair 2.84
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
PSG win 42.0% fair 2.38
Expected Goals
OM
1.60
—
1.82
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.4% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.6% | fair 2.98 |
| Both teams to score | 66.9% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 1-1 PSG | 9.5% | |
| OM 1-2 PSG | 8.7% | |
| OM 2-1 PSG | 7.6% | |
| OM 2-2 PSG | 6.9% | |
| OM 0-1 PSG | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).