OM vs PSG
Marseille (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (09-20 · FT 1-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.93 / ×1.02
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
OM win 30.5% fair 3.28
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
PSG win 46.3% fair 2.16
Expected Goals
OM
1.36
—
1.81
PSG
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): OM ×0.932 (matched 11), PSG ×1.021 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.5% | fair 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 1-1 PSG | 10.3% | |
| OM 1-2 PSG | 9.4% | |
| OM 0-1 PSG | 7.6% | |
| OM 2-1 PSG | 7.0% | |
| OM 0-2 PSG | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).