OM vs REN
Marseille (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 50.6% fair 1.98
Draw 20.5% fair 4.87
REN win 28.9% fair 3.46
Expected Goals
OM
2.30
—
1.71
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.4% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.6% | fair 4.24 |
| Both teams to score | 73.8% | fair 1.36 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-1 REN | 8.2% | |
| OM 1-1 REN | 7.1% | |
| OM 2-2 REN | 7.0% | |
| OM 3-1 REN | 6.3% | |
| OM 1-2 REN | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).