OM vs STR
Marseille (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 78% · pregame locked (08-21 · FT 4-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
OM win 49.4% fair 2.02
Draw 22.0% fair 4.55
STR win 28.6% fair 3.49
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.1% / 21.4% / 28.6%.
Expected Goals
OM
2.04
—
1.51
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.8% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.2% | fair 3.21 |
| Both teams to score | 67.8% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-1 STR | 9.0% | |
| OM 1-1 STR | 8.8% | |
| OM 2-2 STR | 6.8% | |
| OM 1-2 STR | 6.7% | |
| OM 3-1 STR | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).