OM vs STR
Marseille (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
OM win 54.7% fair 1.83
Draw 20.9% fair 4.79
STR win 24.5% fair 4.09
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.1% / 20.1% / 23.8%.
Expected Goals
OM
2.23
—
1.41
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.4% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.6% | fair 3.38 |
| Both teams to score | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-1 STR | 9.2% | |
| OM 1-1 STR | 8.3% | |
| OM 3-1 STR | 6.8% | |
| OM 2-0 STR | 6.5% | |
| OM 2-2 STR | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).