OM vs TFC
Marseille (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 53.9% fair 1.85
Draw 21.5% fair 4.66
TFC win 24.6% fair 4.06
Expected Goals
OM
2.10
—
1.34
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.9% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.1% | fair 3.02 |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-1 TFC | 9.5% | |
| OM 1-1 TFC | 9.0% | |
| OM 2-0 TFC | 7.1% | |
| OM 1-0 TFC | 6.7% | |
| OM 3-1 TFC | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).