OM vs TFC
Marseille (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
OM win 56.5% fair 1.77
Draw 21.3% fair 4.69
TFC win 22.2% fair 4.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.2% / 20.6% / 21.2%.
Expected Goals
OM
2.13
—
1.22
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.1% | fair 2.85 |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-1 TFC | 9.7% | |
| OM 1-1 TFC | 9.1% | |
| OM 2-0 TFC | 8.0% | |
| OM 1-0 TFC | 7.5% | |
| OM 3-1 TFC | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).