OM vs EST
Marseille (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OM win 67.8% fair 1.48
Draw 17.6% fair 5.69
EST win 14.7% fair 6.81
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 71.8% / 16.1% / 12.2%.
Expected Goals
OM
2.58
—
0.98
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.1% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.9% | fair 3.23 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 2-0 EST | 9.4% | |
| OM 2-1 EST | 9.3% | |
| OM 3-0 EST | 8.1% | |
| OM 3-1 EST | 8.0% | |
| OM 1-0 EST | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).