ASM vs SCO
Monaco (home) vs Angers · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ASM win 59.1% fair 1.69
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
SCO win 19.1% fair 5.23
Expected Goals
ASM
1.99
—
0.97
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.2% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-0 SCO | 10.3% | |
| ASM 2-0 SCO | 10.2% | |
| ASM 1-1 SCO | 10.0% | |
| ASM 2-1 SCO | 10.0% | |
| ASM 3-0 SCO | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).