ASM vs SCO
Monaco (home) vs Angers · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
ASM win 56.5% fair 1.77
Draw 22.2% fair 4.51
SCO win 21.4% fair 4.68
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.4% / 21.5% / 20.1%.
Expected Goals
ASM
1.98
—
1.07
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.1% | fair 2.43 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 SCO | 10.0% | |
| ASM 2-1 SCO | 9.9% | |
| ASM 1-0 SCO | 9.3% | |
| ASM 2-0 SCO | 9.2% | |
| ASM 3-1 SCO | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).