ASM vs AJA
Monaco (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ASM win 58.1% fair 1.72
Draw 21.6% fair 4.63
AJA win 20.2% fair 4.94
Expected Goals
ASM
2.03
—
1.06
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.4% | fair 2.48 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 2-1 AJA | 9.9% | |
| ASM 1-1 AJA | 9.8% | |
| ASM 2-0 AJA | 9.4% | |
| ASM 1-0 AJA | 9.3% | |
| ASM 3-1 AJA | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).