ASM vs AJA
Monaco (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
ASM win 54.3% fair 1.84
Draw 22.4% fair 4.46
AJA win 23.3% fair 4.30
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 55.8% / 21.8% / 22.3%.
Expected Goals
ASM
1.96
—
1.16
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 AJA | 10.0% | |
| ASM 2-1 AJA | 9.8% | |
| ASM 1-0 AJA | 8.6% | |
| ASM 2-0 AJA | 8.5% | |
| ASM 3-1 AJA | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).