ASM vs SB29
Monaco (home) vs Brest · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ASM win 55.1% fair 1.81
Draw 21.5% fair 4.65
SB29 win 23.4% fair 4.28
Expected Goals
ASM
2.09
—
1.26
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.9% | fair 2.87 |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 2-1 SB29 | 9.6% | |
| ASM 1-1 SB29 | 9.2% | |
| ASM 2-0 SB29 | 7.6% | |
| ASM 1-0 SB29 | 7.3% | |
| ASM 3-1 SB29 | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).