ASM vs HAC
Monaco (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ASM win 57.4% fair 1.74
Draw 22.5% fair 4.44
HAC win 20.1% fair 4.98
Expected Goals
ASM
1.90
—
0.98
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-0 HAC | 10.7% | |
| ASM 1-1 HAC | 10.4% | |
| ASM 2-0 HAC | 10.2% | |
| ASM 2-1 HAC | 9.9% | |
| ASM 3-0 HAC | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).