ASM vs LMFC
Monaco (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ASM win 63.3% fair 1.58
Draw 19.4% fair 5.14
LMFC win 17.3% fair 5.79
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.8% / 18.2% / 15.0%.
Expected Goals
ASM
2.35
—
1.03
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.4% | fair 2.91 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 2-1 LMFC | 9.7% | |
| ASM 2-0 LMFC | 9.4% | |
| ASM 1-1 LMFC | 8.2% | |
| ASM 1-0 LMFC | 8.0% | |
| ASM 3-1 LMFC | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).