ASM vs RCL
Monaco (home) vs Lens · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
ASM win 33.8% fair 2.96
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
RCL win 43.9% fair 2.28
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.2% / 21.8% / 46.0%.
Expected Goals
ASM
1.60
—
1.95
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.8% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.2% | fair 3.21 |
| Both teams to score | 68.5% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 RCL | 9.0% | |
| ASM 1-2 RCL | 8.7% | |
| ASM 2-1 RCL | 7.2% | |
| ASM 2-2 RCL | 7.0% | |
| ASM 1-3 RCL | 5.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).