ASM vs RCL
Monaco (home) vs Lens · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-18 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ASM win 33.6% fair 2.97
Draw 23.1% fair 4.32
RCL win 43.2% fair 2.31
Expected Goals
ASM
1.50
—
1.81
RCL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ASM ×0.900 (matched 11), RCL ×1.100 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.1% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.9% | fair 2.78 |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 RCL | 9.9% | |
| ASM 1-2 RCL | 9.0% | |
| ASM 2-1 RCL | 7.4% | |
| ASM 2-2 RCL | 6.7% | |
| ASM 0-1 RCL | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).