ASM vs LIL
Monaco (home) vs Lille · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
ASM win 38.6% fair 2.59
Draw 23.7% fair 4.21
LIL win 37.7% fair 2.65
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.6% / 23.4% / 39.0%.
Expected Goals
ASM
1.59
—
1.62
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.9% | fair 2.64 |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 LIL | 10.4% | |
| ASM 1-2 LIL | 8.4% | |
| ASM 2-1 LIL | 8.3% | |
| ASM 2-2 LIL | 6.7% | |
| ASM 0-1 LIL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).