ASM vs LIL
Monaco (home) vs Lille · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 1-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.96 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ASM win 42.0% fair 2.38
Draw 26.0% fair 3.85
LIL win 32.0% fair 3.13
Expected Goals
ASM
1.42
—
1.22
LIL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ASM ×0.960 (matched 11), LIL ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 LIL | 12.3% | |
| ASM 1-0 LIL | 10.1% | |
| ASM 2-1 LIL | 8.8% | |
| ASM 0-1 LIL | 8.7% | |
| ASM 1-2 LIL | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).