ASM vs OL
Monaco (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ASM win 40.4% fair 2.47
Draw 24.8% fair 4.04
OL win 34.8% fair 2.87
Expected Goals
ASM
1.51
—
1.41
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 OL | 11.5% | |
| ASM 2-1 OL | 8.7% | |
| ASM 1-2 OL | 8.1% | |
| ASM 1-0 OL | 8.1% | |
| ASM 0-1 OL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).