ASM vs OM
Monaco (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ASM win 38.1% fair 2.62
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
OM win 39.6% fair 2.52
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.1% / 21.7% / 41.2%.
Expected Goals
ASM
1.78
—
1.89
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.9% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.1% | fair 3.44 |
| Both teams to score | 70.6% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| ASM 1-1 OM | 8.6% | |
| ASM 1-2 OM | 8.1% | |
| ASM 2-1 OM | 7.6% | |
| ASM 2-2 OM | 7.2% | |
| ASM 1-3 OM | 5.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: ASM goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).